Romania Energy Pricing Summary
Baseline
Electricity and Green Certificate Pricing
With reference to our Market
Overview of the Renewable Energy Market in Romania, Energy
Investments & Finance uses a baseline projection of Electricity
and Green Certificate pricing in order to evaluate our energy
projects which we present to potential investors. In all
cases, be it Wind, Solar, Micro Hydro or Other we use the
base line projections provided in the table below.
Energy Investments & Finance
expects electricity pricing to increase throughout a 10
year period with 4% per annum. This is a conservative projection
as the Romanian regulatory authority (ANRE) in their projections
develop scenarios based on price increases of 3%, 4% and
5%.
Green Certificate pricing
is somewhat more difficult to project. Presently Green Certificates
are traded at the maximum established by law, namely EUR
55 per Certificate. Our take on the Green Certificate market
is related to the supply /demand imbalances between the
mandatory quota requirement and the forecast supply of Energy
from qualifying Renewable Energy sources.
Our maximum Renewable Energy
forecasts have been made in consultation with Romania's
leading developers of Renewable energy resources, and our
data is considered optimistic. Our conclusion is that the
Mandatory supply quotas imposed on all energy suppliers
in the Romania market will remain out of reach during the
period 2010-2023.
Unless RES development acquires
an unforeseen acceleration and velocity, we believe that
supply / demand imbalances will maintain the pricing of
the Green Certificate market near the top of the established
price range (EUR 27-55 MWh).
Given the size of the gap
between the mandatory renewable energy quotas imposed on
energy market suppliers and the availability of sufficient
volumes of Green Certificates to enable the market suppliers
to meet their quota targets and avoid penalties amounting
to EUR 100MWh we anticipate a hard market in Green Certificates
until RES production and Quotas are near parity.
However, Energy Investments
& Finance has conservatively built in a discount of 25%
off the maximum price to be reached by 2014.
For our worst case scenarios,
we project electricity prices to remain the same as they
are now over the entire 10 year period and for Green Certificate
prices to drop to the minimum established by legislation,
namely EUR 27 per Green Certificate starting with 2012.
These are truly worst case scenarios.
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XL multi-format compatible table
